Compared to 2020–2021, yes. Compared to the full 54-year history of the 30-year fixed mortgage, no — today’s rate is actually below the long-run average. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) has tracked rates since 1971. The all-time average is 7.73%. As of June 2026, the 30-year fixed sits around 6.66% — lower than the average of five of the six decades on record. What most buyers are comparing to isn’t “normal” — it’s a once-in-a-generation anomaly.
The numbers decade by decade
The Freddie Mac PMMS is the longest-running weekly mortgage rate survey in the United States. Here is what the 30-year fixed rate averaged in each decade since tracking began:
| Decade | Average 30yr Fixed Rate | vs. Today (~6.66%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 8.86% | Today is lower |
| 1980s | 12.70% | Today is much lower |
| 1990s | 8.12% | Today is lower |
| 2000s | 6.29% | Roughly equal |
| 2010s | 4.09% | Today is higher |
| 2020s (through 2025) | 5.34% | Today is slightly higher |
| 54-year average (1971–2025) | 7.73% | Today is below average |
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS). Decade figures are arithmetic means of annual averages. Current rate from Mortgage News Daily.
Why the 2010s were an anomaly — not a baseline
The 2010s produced the lowest sustained mortgage rates in U.S. history. That didn’t happen because the economy was healthy or because the housing market was thriving. It happened because the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to near zero and purchased trillions of dollars in mortgage-backed securities — emergency policy measures responding to the 2008 financial crisis and its prolonged aftermath.
Those conditions held for roughly a decade. Then came 2020 and a second extraordinary intervention: the COVID-19 pandemic triggered another round of emergency Fed action, and the 30-year fixed briefly touched 2.65% in January 2021 — the lowest ever recorded in the survey’s 50-year history.
When buyers say rates are “too high,” they’re almost always comparing to one of those two extraordinary periods. Neither was normal. Both required the kind of economic crisis that no one wants to repeat.
What buyers actually experienced in the 1980s
In 1981, the average 30-year fixed rate was 16.63%. The peak was 18.63% in October of that year. Buyers purchased homes at those rates. They built equity, raised families, and refinanced when rates eventually fell. A $200,000 loan at 18% carried a principal and interest payment of roughly $3,011 per month. The same loan at today’s ~6.66% is approximately $1,290 per month.
The point isn’t that rates were worse — it’s that waiting for a “better” rate has always been the plan that never quite works. Life doesn’t wait, home prices move, and equity you didn’t build is gone.
The “marry the house, date the rate” strategy — and when it makes sense
You may have heard this phrase. The idea is to buy the house you want now and refinance when rates drop. It’s a real strategy, but it comes with honest caveats:
- Refinancing costs money — typically 2–3% of the loan amount in closing costs. You need to stay in the home long enough to break even.
- Rates may or may not drop significantly. Nobody knows. Projections have been wrong consistently since 2022.
- If rates do drop meaningfully (say, to the 5s), you’ll have competition — everyone who waited will flood the market at once, pushing prices up.
- If you bought at today’s rate and prices rise 5% before you would have bought, that appreciation is yours regardless of whether rates move.
For some buyers — especially those whose timeline is flexible and who are in strong rental situations — waiting may be right. For buyers who are financially ready and have found the right home, buying now and refinancing later is often the smarter call. The only way to know which applies to your situation is to run the actual numbers.
What this means for buyers in the Tri-Cities
Johnson City, Kingsport, and Bristol remain among the more affordable metro areas in the Southeast. Median home prices in the region are significantly lower than national figures, which means the payment impact of today’s rates is more manageable than in higher-cost markets. A buyer purchasing a $260,000 home in Elizabethton or Jonesborough at 6.66% is in a very different position than a buyer at the same rate in Nashville or Charlotte.
If you’re a veteran or active-duty service member, a VA loan gives you access to zero down payment with no monthly mortgage insurance — which further changes the math in your favor. USDA loans offer similar zero-down terms for buyers in eligible areas, which covers a large portion of Carter, Greene, Hawkins, and Sullivan counties.
Use the mortgage calculator to see what today’s rate actually looks like as a monthly payment for the home price you’re considering. Then call me — I’ll show you the real numbers based on your specific situation, not a national average.
Frequently asked questions about mortgage rate history
Today’s mortgage rate is not historically high. It is slightly below the 54-year long-run average, substantially below the 1980s and 1990s, and roughly in line with the mid-2000s — a period when buyers actively purchased homes and built significant equity. The 2010–2021 window of sub-4% rates was produced by emergency policy responses to two major economic crises. Waiting for those conditions to return is not a plan — it’s a gamble on history repeating in a way most economists consider unlikely.
If you’re a buyer in the Tri-Cities area and want to see what buying at today’s rate actually looks like for your situation — payment, programs you qualify for, total cost to close — book a free call or call/text 253-431-2630. No pressure, no obligation — just real numbers based on your file.
Data source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS), weekly data 1971–2026. Decade figures are arithmetic means of annual averages. Current rate from Mortgage News Daily, updated weekly. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a commitment to lend. Sam Timlick, NMLS# 2776469. Top Flite Financial, Inc., Company NMLS# 4181. Equal Housing Lender.