- Sales are up 8.3% and price up ~3.5% through June, but the 12-month sales trend just flattened for the first time all year (donfenley.com).
- Supply still sits near 3.5 months despite a 6.3% inventory gain — it's still a seller's market (donfenley.com).
- $1M+ sales grew to 48 this year, but median days on market jumped from 64 to 96 (donfenley.com).
- 30-year fixed sits at 6.77%, 15-year at 6.31%, both roughly flat this week (Mortgage News Daily).
Tri-Cities Market Pulse
The region closed the first half of 2026 with sales up 8.3% and the median price up about 3.5% — but the 12-month sales trend actually dipped at mid-year, ending a 12-month growth streak. Affordability looks like the ceiling: rates near 6.5-6.8% have thinned entry-level demand and pushed activity upmarket, while supply, though up 6.3%, still sits near 3.5 months — well under the 5-6 months of a balanced market. Nearly half of June's listings saw a price cut, but homes priced right are still closing near list. (Full breakdown at donfenley.com →)
On rates: the 30-year fixed sits at 6.77% and the 15-year at 6.31% this week, per Mortgage News Daily — both essentially flat. If a buyer says they're waiting for a bigger drop before making a move, the talking point that holds up: home prices historically don't wait for rates to fall — they tend to keep climbing. If rates do drop meaningfully, expect a wave of buyers to come off the sidelines at once, the way we saw during the COVID years, which can push prices up fast and create real competition. A buyer could end up with a lower rate but a higher price and a similar or bigger monthly payment, plus a tougher negotiating environment. Buying now, at today's price and rate, and refinancing later if rates drop is often the stronger position.
Source: NETAR data reported by Don Fenley, CoreData (donfenley.com); Mortgage News Daily rate index. Market analysis by Sam Timlick, mortgage loan officer in Johnson City, TN.
Top Sale Spotlight: The $1M+ Market Just Hit a Ceiling
The region's top sale so far in 2026: a 7,178-square-foot home on 2.68 acres in Piney Flats, sold off-market for $3.5 million. It's an outlier — strip it out and the broader $1M+ market actually cooled this year even as volume grew.
Forty-eight homes sold above $1M this year versus 42 last year — more volume, but 87.5% of those sales closed below final asking price, with zero selling above ask. (Full report at donfenley.com →) Worth sharing with any client who assumes "luxury" means "fast" — pricing discipline matters even more at the top of the market right now.
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National Agent Mastermind: Stay Tuned
July's National Agent Mastermind session — Lister's Last: How to Outlast Any Market with Annie Cash — already took place on July 21. If you missed it, keep an eye on this space: I'll share the details for the next free session, including date, topic, and speaker, as soon as they're confirmed. In the meantime, you can get on the list for updates at agentanimals.com/samtimlick.
Got Buyers Who Need Financing?
The best clients I've ever worked with came from someone saying, "you should call Sam." If you know someone buying a home — whether it's their first or their fifth, whether they're ready now or just starting to think about it — I'd be honored if you passed my name along. I'll treat them like family, and if you're the agent on the deal, I'll keep you in the loop the whole way. More on how I work with agents at samtimlick.com/for-agents.