- No fresher Fenley report has posted since July 28 — mid-year figures (sales +8.3%, price +3.5%) are still the latest confirmed data (donfenley.com).
- 30-year fixed eased to 6.75%, 15-year to 6.29% — two-week lows, not a trend reversal (Mortgage News Daily).
- A new cocktail bar, Hound Dogs, opened on E. Main St. downtown this week — another sign of continued core Johnson City investment (WJHL).
- Below: a ready-to-use talking point for the buyer who wants to time the rate bottom instead of moving now.
Tri-Cities Market Pulse
No new full market report has come out of Don Fenley/CoreData since the July 28 mid-year piece we covered last issue, so the region's confirmed numbers haven't moved: sales up 8.3% and median price up roughly 3.5% through June, with active supply still around 3.5 months — comfortably a seller's market. Worth flagging to any buyer client who assumes a quiet data week means a quiet market: inventory this tight rarely stays quiet for long, and the next report (whenever it lands) is more likely to show continued tightness than a reversal.
On rates: the 30-year fixed sits at 6.75% and the 15-year at 6.29% this week, per Mortgage News Daily — both eased slightly to two-week lows. That steadiness is actually useful with a hesitant buyer: it means there's no rush-driven reason to wait, and no rush-driven reason to rate-shop into a worse decision either.
Source: NETAR data reported by Don Fenley, CoreData (donfenley.com); Mortgage News Daily rate index. Market analysis by Sam Timlick, mortgage loan officer in Johnson City, TN.
From the Field: Downtown Johnson City Keeps Filling In
A new cocktail bar, Hound Dogs, opened this week on E. Main Street downtown (WJHL) — one more storefront filling in along a corridor that's added restaurants and retail steadily over the past couple years. It's a small data point, but it's the kind agents can use in a listing conversation: downtown vitality is a real driver of nearby residential demand, and it's worth mentioning to a buyer weighing a Johnson City address against a further-out one.
Mortgage Strategy: The Talking Point for "I'll Wait for a Better Rate"
You'll hear this from a buyer at some point this month: "we'll just wait until rates drop more." Here's a line you can use almost verbatim: home prices historically don't wait for rates to fall — they tend to keep climbing regardless. If rates do drop meaningfully, expect a wave of buyers to come off the sidelines all at once, the way we saw during the COVID years, which pushes prices up fast and creates real competition. A buyer could end up with a lower rate but a higher price and a similar — or bigger — monthly payment, plus a tougher negotiating environment than they'd face today. Buying now, at today's price and rate, and refinancing later if rates do drop is often the stronger position. This is a general market-timing observation, not a quote tied to any one buyer's specific loan.
If you want the numbers to walk a client through this scenario side by side, our mortgage calculator is built for exactly that conversation.
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National Agent Mastermind: Stay Tuned
July's National Agent Mastermind session, Lister's Last: How to Outlast Any Market with Annie Cash, has already come and gone. There's no confirmed date yet for the next free session — as soon as Next Level Coaching locks in the topic, speaker, and date, I'll share it here first. In the meantime, you can get on the list for updates at agentanimals.com/samtimlick.
Got Buyers Who Need Financing?
The best clients I've ever worked with came from someone saying, "you should call Sam." If you know someone buying a home — whether it's their first or their fifth, whether they're ready now or just starting to think about it — I'd be honored if you passed my name along. I'll treat them like family, and if you're the agent on the deal, I'll keep you in the loop the whole way. More on how I work with agents at samtimlick.com/for-agents.